Mogadishu – The Federal Government of Somalia, through Villa Somalia, has announced its intention to establish a new federal member state in the Jubbaland region, a move perceived as a direct challenge to the current Jubbaland administration led by President Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Ahmed Madobe). The Ministry of Interior has reportedly been tasked with implementing this plan, signaling that Villa Somalia remains engaged in a political approach many believe has already failed in the past.
This development appears to mirror the events of 2013 when President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud refused to recognize the then-newly elected Jubbaland administration, sparking a significant political crisis. The new push suggests a return to those contentious days.
Pre-War Plans and the New State Formation
Before the recent conflict in Raskamboni erupted, President Hassan Sheikh reportedly informed international partners of his intent to initiate military action and form a parallel Jubbaland administration. This confirms that tensions between Villa Somalia and Jubbaland have once again escalated, raising fears of renewed instability in Kismayo and the wider Jubbaland region.
A Historical Repeat
Observers note that the current situation bears a striking resemblance to the 2013 crisis, when then-President Hassan Sheikh opposed Ahmed Madobe’s leadership and rejected Jubbaland’s legitimacy. This resulted in severe political divisions between the federal government and the regional administration.
It seems Villa Somalia is once again resorting to the same confrontational political playbook, without significant adjustments to support inclusive federal state-building and cooperation.
Conclusion
The new plan by Villa Somalia to form an alternative Jubbaland state risks undermining regional stability and the broader federalization process in Somalia. It could derail the fragile political consensus and reopen old wounds that many hoped had been healed. The international community and Somali stakeholders are closely monitoring these developments amid fears of renewed political and security turmoil.
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